Una noticia buena y otra mala

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Por tanto, sin paliativos, se trata de una buena noticia que también se inscribe en la estela de los países que van consiguiendo cubrir su suministro de gas a través de fuentes no convencionales (esquistos, arenas bituminosas, etc…), como Estados Unidos.
Claramente, la lectura económica de una noticia así es un aumento de la oferta de gas. Los aumentos de oferta de gas, consecuentemente, se ven acompañados con una bajada de los precios en el abastecimiento de este hidrocarburo en lógica económica. Y, además, este aumento de la oferta de gas se ve concatenado con la reducción de la demanda por dos líneas: la propia del autoabastecimiento por fuentes no convencionales que están consiguiendo terceros países y la producida por la caída de consumo y demanda derivada de la recesión y de la crisis.
Añadamos a este hallazgo la configuración de forma muy veloz del hub del gas en Bilbao, lo que puede conseguir una mayor flexibilidad y capacidad de aprovisionamiento, si cabe, en uno de los mejores sistemas gasistas del mundo, como el español. Por tanto, resultado: una oferta de gas creciente y diversificada.
Las consecuencias de este hallazgo no son simétricas para todo el mundo, en la medida que es previsible y debería poder transmitirse dicha situación del mercado gasista (más que una coyuntura es una tendencia) a la bajada de los precios del gas en consonancia con ese aumento de la oferta y disminución de la demanda.
La mala noticia, por tanto, es que el modelo ha cambiado y requiere de mucha agilidad en la gestión y arbitraje del aprovisionamiento. Afecta este hallazgo, seguramente, a relaciones y contratos de suministro a largo plazo que actualmente tienen nuestras empresas con suministradores. Va a obligar a que los mecanismos de «trading» sean altamente activos y eficientes, más allá de la propia comercialización a los consumidores con negocio recurrente. Y, desde el punto de vista de la dinámica política interna, dibuja un escenario interesante: el gas en manos catalanas y vascas.
Todo un descubrimiento. Apasionante.

/19 Comentarios/por
19 comentarios
  1. whiteshark0
    whiteshark0 Dice:

    Hola,
    El autor del artículo ignora, descuidada o deliberadamente, la naturaleza y origen del descubrimiento realizado.
    Bajo la única óptica monetarista ultraliberal no parece importante decir que el «descubrimiento apasionante» no es gas convencional sino gas de esquisto o pizarra (shale gas), gas no convencional.
    La técnica utilizada para extraer este gas de pizarra es el conocido «fracking» o fracturación hidraúlica, cuyo impacto ecológico ha creado una agria polémica, hábilmente ignorada por la industria y sus medios afines, en EE.UU y Francia.
    Este diario nunca se ha distinguido por sus sensibilidad ecológica, pero calificar de «apasionante» un descubrimiento que sólo cubriría unos pocos años de consumo de gas nacional y que podría conllevar un desastre ecológico en muchas zonas de España es cuando menos una visión pobre y sesgada de la realidad.
    Menos manipulación y más información, señores. Espero que publiquen esta opinión.
    Gracias.

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